Believing what you want to on climate change

We only seem to believe what we want to believe

It seems to be a natural human trait to believe what is most comfortable to believe, whether or not that belief accords with the available evidence. This is very evident in matters of religion and politics, which are both areas in which it is notoriously difficult to persuade someone to change their beliefs or to convince them that they are being irrational by believing what they do.

This phenomenon seems to be prevalent in the debate over climate change, and particularly on the question of whether the current wave of global warming is the result of human activity.

The evidence is mounting on the side of “yes it is”. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issues regular reports on the issue, and it is noticeable that the percentage of likelihood that man-made emissions are the cause has risen steadily as each report has been issued over the years. In their second report, in 1995, the figure was 50 per cent – now it is 95 per cent. The number of scientists contributing to this view is enormous, with more than 600 contributing to the report and more than 30,000 offering comments. This is just about as close to consensus as you could ever hope to get.

And yet, with the wealth of evidence growing, the number of climate change deniers is also on the increase! The proportion of people who take this line has quadrupled since 2005, and support for alternative energy schemes has fallen. Why?

My view is that, as stated above, people have a tendency to believe what they want to believe is true, even when it is not. If human beings are causing global warming , then those same human beings are going to have to take drastic action to slow it down and avoid the catastrophe that could face our planet if we do nothing.  This is not something that anyone can accept with any degree of pleasure, so it is a lot easier to stick one’s head in the sand and pretend that the problem does not exist.

What is likely to happen?

A generally accepted prediction is that the average temperature of the planet could rise by four degrees Celsius by the year 2100, and that would mean that it could support a human population of no more than one billion as opposed to the seven billion that exist today.

That is a horrifying prospect for our descendants, as it implies mass starvation for vast areas of the planet, preceded by conflicts over resources of unimaginable proportions.

And how are we reacting today?  Largely by ignoring the issue altogether and not allowing ourselves to believe what we are being told! All this talk is very uncomfortable and we would much prefer to bother ourselves with other matters.

Just as some people like to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of the garden, because that is nice and comfortable, so they like to imagine, in some quarters, that the whole “climate change thing” is a massive scam to make us pay higher taxes!

It’s time to get real, folks, and start believing what the vast majority of climate scientists are telling us – it is our doing, and we’d better start mending our ways if we want our children’s children to have a future.

© John Welford